General Pandemic Questions

Q: What is an influenza pandemic?
A:   An influenza pandemic is an outbreak of influenza that spreads rapidly around the world. Flu pandemics arise when a new strain of the virus which is easily transmittable from human to human emerges, and against which people have little or no immunity.

Q: How will a pandemic differ from a regular Influenza outbreak?
A: The main difference is that a pandemic will affect large proportion of the world population - millions of flu cases will be caused by one subtype of flu - in a short period of time. A normal flu virus is seasonal and does not necessarily affect a large number of people at the same time.

As well, a pandemic will come in waves, the second wave usually being more severe than the first one. Unlike regular influenza outbreak, pandemic influenza won't be seasonal.

Q: When was the last influenza pandemic?
A: The world experienced influenza pandemics in 1918, 1957 and 1968.

Q: Should we be expecting a pandemic in Canada ?
A: Public health officials have warned that a global influenza pandemic is overdue. Historically, influenza pandemics have occurred about every 30-40 years. When the new pandemic begins, it will affect a large portion of the world population, in both industrialized and developing countries.

Q: How many years before the pandemic is declared?
A: We don’t know exactly when the pandemic will start. What we do know is that pandemics historically occur every 30 to 40 years and it is now 38 years since the last pandemic. Knowing that, we expect that anytime between now and the next five years a pandemic may occur.

Q: How long does a pandemic last?
A: A pandemic can last 12 to 24 months. It unfolds in waves. A wave can last six to 12 weeks and is characterized by the sharp rise of illness, followed by the sharp decline. A sharp rise occurs because the general population is susceptible to new virus, which quickly saturates community. Sharp decline occurs after the infection achieved initial saturation level. After the first wave, we will have a “calm” period, lasting approximately three to nine months, where some sporadic infections in people appear. Then the second wave will come and last six to 12 weeks followed by another “calm” period. After the second low period, we may see the third wave. That’s how the total duration of pandemic (waves and calm periods together) may reach 24 months.

Q: Is there any way to fend off a pandemic?
A: There are no proven methods to permanently avert flu pandemics.